The 2.25% Pause: Why Your Next Move Just Got a Green Light

On January 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.25%. For York Region, this is the most important "No News" of the year.

While the "Big 5" banks are split on what happens next—with Scotiabank even warning of a late-2026 hike—the current window offers a rare combination of rate stability and record-high inventory. Whether you are launching into your first home, upsizing for more space, or cashing out for retirement, the strategy for 2026 is to act while your purchasing power is at its peak.

"It is completely normal to feel a sense of relief today. You are right to want a moment of calm. However, as an supporter for your net worth, I have to be clear: The 'Wait-and-See' strategy is now your biggest risk."

1 The 2026 Reality

Figure 1: The Green Light. High inventory + Stabilized rates = Maximum Purchasing Power.

With inventory in Markham and Richmond Hill at a 5-year high, the person who waits for a slightly lower rate might find themselves in a bidding war for a house that costs $50,000 more by summer.

2 3 Strategies for 3 Buyers

1. The First-Time Buyer

If you’ve been sidelined in East Gwillimbury or Greensborough, this hold is your signal. 2.25% is widely considered the "neutral floor."

The Strategy

Use the current supply surge to negotiate. You can ask for home inspections and financing conditions—luxuries that disappear when the market heats up.

VERDICT: BUY (Lock in 3-Year Fixed)

2. The Move-Up Buyer

Feeling cramped in Cornell? The Scotiabank forecast of a late-year hike is your warning. For every 0.50% increase in rates, your borrowing power drops by roughly 4-5%.

The Risk

If you wait and rates hike, the $1.5M home you love might still be there, but the bank will only lend you $1.4M. You aren't priced out by the market; you're priced out by the Stress Test.

VERDICT: ACT IN H1

3. The Right-Sizer

For those in Cachet or Bayview Hill, this is your clinical exit window. We are in "muddled growth." Your estate isn't jumping in value, but carrying costs are climbing.

The Move

Recapture your capital while the market is "Fluid." Move into a luxury condo in Downtown Markham now to secure your lifestyle and lower expenses by 60%.

VERDICT: SELL (Recapture Capital)

3 Frequently Asked Questions

Will interest rates go down more in 2026?

Most Big 5 banks believe 2.25% is the floor. While some hope for another cut, Scotiabank is actually forecasting rate hikes in the second half of 2026 due to sticky inflation.

Is it a buyer's market in Richmond Hill?

Yes. With inventory up 37% year-over-year and rates stabilized, buyers currently have the highest level of negotiating power they’ve seen in five years.

What is a Qualification Hedge?

It is a strategy of acting while rates are stable to protect your borrowing power. If rates rise by 0.50%, your bank may lend you 5% less house, even if the price of the home remains unchanged.