The 4.6-Month Supply Trap: Why “Days on Market” is Lying to You

In January 2026, the GTA real estate market is facing a "Supply Trap." While "Days on Market" (DOM) remains low at 42 days, the Months of Inventory (MOI) has climbed to 4.6 months.

This discrepancy is a "vanity gap." DOM only tells you how fast the best homes sell; MOI tells you the odds of a home selling at all. For buyers, 4.6 months of supply is a screaming signal to negotiate. For sellers, it is a warning that the market has shifted.

"It is completely normal to feel confused when you scroll through Instagram and see agents posting 'SOLD IN 48 HOURS!' You are right to question that narrative."

1 The Math of the "Trap"

Figure 1: The Speedometer. We have crossed firmly into "Buyer's Market" territory. Sellers are no longer in the driver's seat.

Months of Inventory (MOI) is the "Speedometer" of the market. As of January 2026, the GTA has hit 4.6 months of supply. We haven't seen this much choice for buyers in years.

2 Hyper-Local Inventory: York Region

Neighborhood	Median Price	Inventory (MOI)	1-Year Trend
Berczy Village (Markham)	$1.68M	4.2 Months	-3.9%
Bayview Hill (Richmond Hill)	$2.45M	5.8 Months	-5.2%
Queensville (E. Gwillimbury)	$1.15M	6.1 Months	-10.2%
Sharon (E. Gwillimbury)	$1.82M	5.4 Months	-4.8%

*Swipe table left/right on mobile to view more data.

3 How to Win the Supply Trap

Ignore "Sold" Stickers

They represent the past (30-60 days ago). Look at the "Active" listings to see your real competition.

The 30-Day Threshold

Any home sitting past 30 days in a 4.6-month market is facing "Seller Fatigue." This is where the deepest discounts happen.

Condition Power

With 4.6 months of supply, you should never waive an inspection. You have the luxury of safety.

4 Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good month of inventory for buyers?

Anything over 4 months. At the current 4.6 months of supply in 2026, buyers have significant leverage to negotiate prices and include conditions like home inspections. However, bear in mind that specific neighbourhoods and property types may have quite different MOI's.

Why is my home not selling if DOM is low?

"Days on Market" is a vanity metric that only tracks successful sales. With 4.6 months of inventory, there is high competition, and buyers are being more selective about price and property condition.

How does inventory affect prices?

Higher inventory (above 4 months) typically leads to price stabilization or declines. In areas like East Gwillimbury (6+ months), we are seeing more significant price adjustments in favor of buyers.